Parallels From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
The 1918 Flu didn't end in 1918. What can it teach us asks the Washinton Post's Jeff McHugh. in an article this week The flu epidemic began in the spring of 1918 and spread rapidly around the world. The first wave in the US was relatively mild but was followed with a much more severe second wave in August-September of that year - it would turn out to be the most deadly surge. "In NYC street cars were converted into hearses and priests collected bodies with horse drawn carriages." More Americans died during the surge than in WWI, WWII, Korea and the Vietnam wars. There was then a third wave in the winter and early Spring of 1919 and historians report that "Americans were weary of the limitations on daily life" and masks and social distancing were discontinued and school and church closures were lifted. In the winter of 1919-1920 more people in New York City died from Dec 1919 to April 1920 than in the first and second waves bringing the total US deaths to 675,000. Mortality was highest the <5, 20-40, and 65+ year old people.
The 1918 flu virus didn't mutate as fast as the SARs-CoV-2 virus and the flu virus eventually grew milder. One-third of the world population was infected and there were 50 million deaths. When the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 appeared, many scientists wondered if it was going to be like the milder flu virus which ended the 1918 pandemic. The flu vaccine was not available in the US until 1945 and we have vaccines which modify the number of cases and deaths during the annual winter flu season. Hopefully the number of Covid-19 cases will continue to decrease, as they are doing in NY, and it will become an endemic virus that will benefit from our vaccines and growing immunity. However we could have another surge as society prematurely returns to a pre-pandemic life. Which will it be?