Part 4: Vaccine Effectiveness and Indian Variants
The more RNA viruses multiply, the more mutations occur. Therefore uncontrolled infections, like in India or even hot spots in the US, will result in more mutations. Will our current vaccines protect us? Mutations can 1. Increase transmission of the virus, 2. Reduce effectiveness of our vaccines, and/or 3. Cause more severe disease. The Indian mutant has 3 subtypes, and B.1.617.2 has increased transmission and may now be more prevalent than the UK mutant based on Public Health England studies just published. The total number of cases in England are not increasing, but the Indian variant is replacing the UK variant in new cases. Two doses of the Pfizer vaccine had an efficacy of 88% against the Indian variant and 93% against the UK variant. However, the effectiveness after only one dose dropped to 33%. See below.
The NYC Dept of Health is performing genomic sequencing on viruses isolated from random samples of infected patients. The UK variant has increased from 7% in Feb. to 47% as of May 9. The NYC Variant remains at approximately 30% (3 subtypes), the Brazil variant is approximately 6%, and the Indian variant has just appeared at the end of April in 4% of New Yorkers. So far the mRNA vaccines have demonstrated effectiveness against each of the variants, but the recent UK report found that two doses are necessary. The vaccine was only 33-34% effective after one dose. The mRNA vaccines are very effective and very safe - everyone who only got one dose should go NOW to get their second dose. Please get vaccinated - the infection rate, which is published daily by the NY DOH, right now is about 1% or less in NY State, NY City, Manhattan, and in my Zipcode. The virus will now seek out the susceptible people in our midst.