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Fighting the Coronavirus

New York City (NYC) is ending the first week in our Phase 1 reopening.  My husband and I both walked with social distancing and masks, which felt really good.  Each day the Government goal was to test 35,000 people in NYC and there were only 1.2% positive virus cases in Manhattan from Thursday.  Governor Cuomo, right from March, planned to reduce the number of cases based on CDC guidelines and consultation with other epidemiologists, and only then to begin Phase 1 reopening, by regions, across the state. If the numbers increase, we will be held in this phase until the number of cases drops again - or go back to partial shutdown. 

The Rt (rate of transmission) was 0.77, which means that each infected person is infecting <1 other person.  An Rt above 1.2 will mean one person is infecting more than one other person and it could be the beginning of another surge.  We've been there and don't want to do that again.  Last Sunday NY State had 2% positive cases (~50,000 tests), and yesterday it was 1.5%.  Each region has an army of trackers and a tracker contacts each positive patient, for quarantine.  Their contacts are then traced, tested, and asked to begin quarantine. I look at the increasing number of cases in other states and don't want to be there again. 

I think we can now be sure that the coronavirus will be with us for months or until we have a vaccine and robust vaccination program.  Test-Track-Quarantine is a new concept for me, but every epidemiologist says that is the only way to control a pandemic.  New Knowledge for this old MD!


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